Alexander Vargas
SS · Chattanooga Lookouts · Double-A · 24.0y · #3735 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
38 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2021 Bowman Chrome Alexander Vargas Green…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Alexander Vargas scores 38 out of 100 (#3735 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus-plus — 11.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 96% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 62 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Power: well below
.054 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: plus-plus
11.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 96% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (14th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
62 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AV — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AV
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $9.09 costs 1.53× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
2021 Bowman Chrome Alexander Vargas Green Shimmer /99 Auto 1st PSA 9 AUTO 10 RC
/99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 1258d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Alexander Vargas 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Speckle /299 Yankees CPA-AV
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.99
modeled ~$11.99
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Chrome Alexander Vargas Auto /499 Refractor 1st Yankees #CPA-AV B
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 77d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.09
modeled ~$10.99
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Chrome ALEXANDER VARGAS 1st REFRACTOR AUTO /499 RC Yankees
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 531d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.49
modeled ~$10.50
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Chrome Alexander Vargas Auto /499 Refractor 1st Yankees #CPA-AV B
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$21.49
modeled ~$10.50
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Chrome Alexander Vargas RC Speckle Auto /299 SGC 9.5 Yankees
/299 · SGC 9.5 · listed 148d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$21.99
no sold price
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.94 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.09, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.09 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +53%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.99 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +21%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $24.21, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $24.21 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +120%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $952.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $952.00 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +3832%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
11.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level
.054 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level
6.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
51
average · better than 52% at his level
19 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level · the result, not a skill
.776 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
53
above average · better than 60% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, production at the 69th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 45 and his production sits at 69, a gap of -24. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.7 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
62
AVG
.339
OBP
.383
SLG
.393
OPS
.776
better than 69%
HR
0
SB
2
BB%
6.5
K%
11.3
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest seen
- $5.94
- Median ask
- $21.49
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $5.94
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $9.09
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 13 cards
- $170.082021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor Alexander Vargas PSA 10 Auto 0eo6NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Alexander Vargas 1st Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor /299 #CPA-AVNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $5.942021 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Alexander Vargas #CPA-AV YankeesLOTTERY
- $13.99ALEXANDER VARGAS 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-AVLOTTERY
- —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Alexander Vargas #CPA-AV Yankees NYYNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Alexander Vargas #CPA-AV YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autographs Alexander Vargas #CPA-AV 1st Bowman AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Alexander Vargas 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects #CPA-AV Alexander Vargas Auto. SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Alexander Vargas Auto SGC 10/8.5 YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $75.392021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor /499 Alexander Vargas BGS 9 MINT Auto nd3NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $24.212021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor 5/250 Alexander Vargas Auto 2a9LOTTERY
- $952.002021 Alexander Vargas Bowman Chrome Auto Inscription SuperFractor #PCS-AV /1NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run