Deal Sniper

Jheremy Vargas

SS · Nashville Sounds · Triple-A · 23.0y · #3772 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

37 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

41 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Jheremy Vargas scores 37 out of 100 (#3772 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 10 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

  • Contact: bottom of the scale

    50.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (9th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    10 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 31 on the 20–80 scale (50.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 18 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 19 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 18 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $3.73 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

41 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 41 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 35 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome ~ Jheremy Vargas ~ #CPA-JVG ~ Milwaukee Brewers ~ Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 105d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.73

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas CPA-JVG 1st Auto | Milwaukee Brewers

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 543d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.99

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CDA-JVG

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 300d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.34

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jheremy Vargas - 2022 Bowman Chrome Autograph 1st Prospect AUTO

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 810d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.62

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #JVG Brewers

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 897d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.00

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas 1st Bowman Auto RC 1st #CPA-JVG Brewers

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 789d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.24

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.73 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.50 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +74%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.48 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 40 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 40 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    31

    bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level

    50.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level

    10.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    34

    bottom of the scale · better than 5% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .311 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 21th percentile of the cohort, production at the 5th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 21 and his production sits at 5, a gap of +16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 72th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.7 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

10

AVG

.111

OBP

.200

SLG

.111

OPS

.311

better than 5%

HR

0

SB

0

BB%

10.0

K%

50.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market41 listed · 41 eBay-verified · 35 not shown above
Listings
41

41 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$3.73
Median ask
$11.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$3.73
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$6.48

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 35 cards

  • $6.302022 Bowman Chrome 1st - Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Milwaukee Brewers - AUTOLOTTERY
  • $6.302022 Bowman Chrome 1st - Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Milwaukee Brewers - AUTOLOTTERY
  • $6.482022 BOWMAN CHROME JHEREMY VARGAS 1st AUTO REFRACTOR RC #/499 MILWAUKEE BREWERSLOTTERY
  • $6.502022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Jheremy Vargas Auto /499 Brewers ProspectLOTTERY
  • $6.682022 BOWMAN CHROME JHEREMY VARGAS 1ST AUTOLOTTERY
  • $7.66Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto 239/499 #CPA-JVGLOTTERY
  • $8.122022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 106/499 Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Auto 16mfLOTTERY
  • $8.99Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie On Card Auto RC Brewers AutographLOTTERY
  • $10.00Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Base Auto Rookie RC BrewersLOTTERY
  • $11.002022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JVG Jheremy Vargas Brewers 1st Bowman AutoLOTTERY
  • $11.252022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-JVGLOTTERY
  • $11.572022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 152/499 Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Auto 1j90LOTTERY
  • $12.432022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 379/499 Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Auto 4m4LOTTERY
  • $13.99JHEREMY VARGAS 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JVGLOTTERY
  • $15.98Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 SP #CDA-JVGLOTTERY
  • $17.662022 1st Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas Base Auto MILWAUKEE Brewers AUTOGRAPHLOTTERY
  • $20.00JHEREMY VARGAS 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST BOWMAN REFRACTOR AUTO #076/499 BREWERSLOTTERY
  • $22.45Jheremy Vargas - 2022 Bowman Chrome Autograph 1st Refractor AUTO /499 - PSA 9LOTTERY
  • $22.502022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JVG Jheremy Vargas Prospect Auto SGC 10LOTTERY
  • $23.642022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG SGC 9.5 Mint+ Auto 0ll2LOTTERY
  • $25.18JHEREMY VARGAS 2022 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor Auto 12/50 PSA 9 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.942022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas 1st Auto CPA-JVG PSA 9 BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.952022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jheremy Vargas Auto 1st Bowman Refractor /499 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.742022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor /100 Jheremy Vargas PSA 10 Auto w7pNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $274.992022 Bowman Chrome #/25 1st Orange Refractor Auto #CPA-JVG Jheremy Vargas PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas #CPA-JVG Prospect Auto 1st PSA 10 BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-JVG BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Jheremy Vargas CPA-JVG BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 1st Bowman Chrome ~ Jheremy Vargas ~ #CPA-JVG ~ Milwaukee Brewers ~ AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPA-JVG BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JVG Prospect Autographs 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Jheremy Vargas Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Auto 116/250 PSA 9 POP 11NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jheremy Vargas Speckle Refractor Auto #184/299 psa 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • — Jheremy Vargas 2022 Bowman 1st Prospect Auto Chrome Refractor /499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now