Deal Sniper

Luke Adams

3B · Triple-A · 22.0y · #2 of 7,922 we rate

The player
ELITE PROFILE

92 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome Luke Adams Auto Green…. Priced above value.

Our take

Elite prospect, untested market.

Luke Adams scores 92 out of 100 (#2 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

  • Contact: plus

    14.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 88% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 81/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .251 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 87% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luke Adams #CPA-LA PSA 9 MINT Auto sc8 at $126, 215% over the $40 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $40 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Luke Adams Orange Shimmer /25 1st Prospect Auto PSA 9

    /25 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 37d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled $120

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • Luke Adams PSA 9 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect GOLD Lava REFRACTOR /50 z4

    /50 · PSA 9 · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $199.97

    modeled $96

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • Luke Adams PSA 9 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect GOLD Lava REFRACTOR /50 z4

    /50 · PSA 9 · listed 3d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $199.99

    modeled $96

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Sapphire Luke Adams 1st Chrome Auto Gold /50 BSPA-LA PSA 9

    /50 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 401d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    $306.08

    modeled $96

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • Luke Adams 2024 1st Bowman Auto Gold Sapphire /50 Au Rc Brewers (CPA-LA)

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled $50.78–71.98

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Luke Adams Chrome Auto Yellow Refractor 1st Prospect Brewers 04/75

    /75 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $42.32–59.98

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Luke Adams, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $25.00–$52.49, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $49.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $49.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $95.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $95.95 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +92%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $74.96, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $74.96 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -22%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Mojo Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $61.74, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $61.74 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -18%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sapphire /99THIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    nothing listed
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —

16 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 58 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 58 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    62

    plus · better than 88% at his level

    14.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level

    .251 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    13.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    53

    above average · better than 60% at his level

    16 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .906 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 77th percentile of the cohort, production at the 83th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 77 and his production sits at 83, a gap of -6. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 38th percentile.

Will he get there?

About as likely as prospects get 8.6 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.906 OPS in 264 PA (not ranked against his level)
  • form is climbing

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

264

AVG

.251

OBP

.404

SLG

.502

OPS

.906

better than 83%

HR

13

SB

7

BB%

13.3

K%

14.0

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .859 to .906 after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.859▲.906

Power

.218▲.251

Walks

15.5%▼13.3%

Strikeouts

21.6%▼14.0%

Last season, 278 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $120.00 · /99 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$49.99
Median ask
$171.26
Cheapest 1st auto
$49.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$49.99

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 19 cards

  • $129.97Luke Adams 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Mini-Diamond REFRACTOR /100 PSA 9 Mint z4WATCH
  • $129.99Luke Adams 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Mini-Diamond REFRACTOR /100 PSA 9 Mint z4WATCH
  • $74.96Luke Adams 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect HTA Choice REFRACTOR 053/150 z1WATCH
  • $95.95LUKE ADAMS 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 Brewers #CPA-LAWATCH
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Luke Adams 1st Auto Speckle /299 CPA-LA BrewersWATCH
  • $49.99Luke Adams 2024 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO REFRACTOR 464/499 Brewers CPA-LA RC z2WATCH
  • $61.74Luke Adams 2025 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Green Mojo Refractor Auto /99 #BMA-LADWATCH
  • —LUKE ADAMS 2025 BOWMAN CHROME MEGA BOX #BMA-LAD PURPLE MOJO REFRACTOR /199 AUTOPASS
  • $126.092024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luke Adams #CPA-LA PSA 9 MINT Auto sc8PASS
  • $161.422024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Luke Adams Speckle Refractor /299 RC PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $181.092024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luke Adams #CPA-LA PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 11s9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $294.99PSA 10 2024 LUKE ADAMS 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Mini Diamond /100 Brewers CHEAP!!!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.682024 Bowman Chrome Luke Adams 1st Auto Yellow /75 SGC 10 GEM MINT Color MatchNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $306.082024 Bowman Sapphire Luke Adams 1st Prospect Auto Green /99 BSPA-LA PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $340.98Luke Adams 2024 Bowman Sapphire Chrome Green 1st Auto /99 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Luke Adams 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Red Sapphire /5 PSA 10 Gem Brewers RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman 1st Chrome GREEN SAPPHIRE REFRACTOR AUTO/99 Luke Adams PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Luke Adams Orange Wave Refractor /25 SGC 9.5 Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Luke Adams Auto Green Shimmer Refractor Autograph 1st RCPASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now