Alex Jackson
C · St. Paul Saints · Triple-A · 30.0y · #4353 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Alex Jackson scores 35 out of 100 (#4353 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .272 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 95 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 6% of the players there.
Contact: well below
32.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus
.272 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (90th percentile); C sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
95 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Age for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2014 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2014 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /10 at $15.00 costs 1.08× base, and print run alone suggests 3.00×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
18 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".
ALEX JACKSON 2014 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME RC AUTO #BCA-AJ MARINERS 1ST BGS 9.5
base · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 306d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$17.50
modeled ~$15.90
LOTTERY
2014 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Gold Refractor 17/50 Alex Jackson BGS 9 Auto 2a9
/50 · BGS 9 · listed 8d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$46.63
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2014 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex Jackson Autograph Rookie Card BGS 9.5 w/10 Auto
/10 · BGS 9.5 · listed 1685d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$15.00
no sold price
LOTTERY
2014 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Green Refractor 11/99 Alex Jackson Auto s3g
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$58.71
modeled ~$6.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2014 Bowman Chrome Alex Jackson 1st AUTO Autograph Rookie Tampa Bay Rays BCA-AJ
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 371d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$4.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
ALEX JACKSON 2014 Bowman Chrome Autograph BGS 9.5 Gem Rookie (MINN TWINS AUTO RC
base · BGS 9.5 · listed 16d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$13.90
modeled ~$17.50
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in bgs 9.5 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing BGS 9.5 autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.90 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $26.11, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $26.11 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +88%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.00 live
- Scarcity
- 10 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -43%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 47 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
39
well below · better than 13% at his level
32.6% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
.272 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
40
well below · better than 17% at his level
6.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
6 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
54
above average · better than 64% at his level · the result, not a skill
.806 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · context, not a skill
-4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 40th percentile of the cohort, production at the 64th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 40 and his production sits at 64, a gap of -24. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
95
AVG
.239
OBP
.295
SLG
.511
OPS
.806
better than 64%
HR
7
SB
1
BB%
6.3
K%
32.6
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
- Listings
- 18
- Lowest seen
- $9.98
- Median ask
- $21.74
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $9.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
18 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 11 cards
- $14.752014 Bowman Chrome Draft Pick Autograph Auto Alex Jackson Graded BGS 9.5 #BCA-AJLOTTERY
- $15.90ALEX JACKSON 2014 Bowman Chrome Autograph BGS 9.5 Gem Rookie (MINN TWINS AUTO RCLOTTERY
- $25.99Alex Jackson 2014 Bowman Chrome RC Auto BGS 9.5 Gem Mint MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $26.112014 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor Alex Jackson BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 4f5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2014 Bowman Chrome Draft Pick Autograph Auto Alex Jackson Graded BGS 9.5 #BCA-AJNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $16.99ALEX JACKSON 2014 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT AUTO #BCAAJ BGS 9.0 AUTO BGS 10.0 MARINERSLOTTERY
- $31.492014 Bowman Chrome Draft Pick Alex Jackson Autograph BGS 9 Auto 10 Mariners RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —ALEX JACKSON 2014 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT AUTO #BCAAJ BGS 9.0 AUTO BGS 10.0 MARINERSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $34.902014 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects Alex Jackson Auto Seattle Mariners #DP3 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $9.982014 Bowman Chrome Autographs Alex Jackson Auto Seattle Mariners #BCA-AJ 1STPASS
- $40.58ALEX JACKSON 2014 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME AUTO #BCA-AJ MARINERS 1ST BGS 9.5PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run