Deal Sniper

Shay Whitcomb

3B · Sacramento River Cats · Triple-A · 27.0y · #4575 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

34 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Expensive

His best base card asks $11.31, over the $5–7 that card has sold in.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, expensive market.

Shay Whitcomb scores 34 out of 100 (#4575 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: plus — 39 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 90% at his level.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $5–8 off 3 confirmed sales.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: below average

    8.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .869 last season to .749 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .242 last season to .141 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: plus

    39 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 90% at his level.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

  • Asks above the sold band

    Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SW — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$4.50–7.70midpoint $5.00

Confirmed· 3 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 7 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SW

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Shay Whitcomb Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Astros at $24, 380% over the $5–7 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $5 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • A raw base auto at or under $4.50 delivered — the bottom of the range these have actually sold in.
  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 SHAY WHITCOMB 1st Bowman Chrome On-Card AUTO #CPA-SW Houston Astros

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 54d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.31

    sold $5–7

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 SHAY WHITCOMB 1st Bowman Chrome On-Card AUTO #CPA-SW Houston Astros

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 60d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.95

    sold $5–7

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Shay Whitcomb Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Astros

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 56d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $24.00

    sold $5–7

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Rookie Mini-Diamond Refractor /100 Shay Whitcomb Auto RC 10k8

    /100 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 5 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $34.56

    modeled $4.05–16.17

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Rookie Mini-Diamond Refractor /100 Shay Whitcomb Auto RC 09an

    /100 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 5 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $34.57

    modeled $4.05–16.17

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Shay Whitcomb 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Green Refractor 27/99 PSA 10 Gem Mint

    /99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 5d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.31 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.56, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.56 live
    Scarcity
    100 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +206%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    47

    average · better than 40% at his level

    24.8% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    49

    average · better than 46% at his level

    .141 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    8.5% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level

    39 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    50

    average · better than 49% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .749 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 51th percentile of the cohort, production at the 49th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 51 and his production sits at 49, a gap of +2. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 50th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.4 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

355

AVG

.273

OBP

.335

SLG

.414

OPS

.749

better than 49%

HR

10

SB

23

BB%

8.5

K%

24.8

Is this player getting better?

Down from .869 to .749 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.869▼.749

Power

.242▼.141

Walks

11.1%▼8.5%

Strikeouts

25.6%→24.8%

Last season, 469 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$11.31
Median ask
$24.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$11.31
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • —2023 Bowman Chrome - Shay Whitcomb 1st Auto /499PASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Shay Whitcomb Base Auto, 1st Bowman, Astros, #CPA-SWPASS
  • —2023 1st Bowman Chrome Shay Whitcomb CPA-SW RC Auto Houston Astros🔥🔥🔥PASS
  • —2023 Shay Whitcomb 1st Bowman Chrome On-Card AUTO #CPA-SW Houston Astros PASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Shay Whitcomb RCPASS
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Shay Whitcomb 1st Bowman RC Auto Purple CPA-SW 249/250PASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Shay Whitcomb Blue Auto /150 RC PSA 10 Gem Mint AstrosPASS
  • —Shay Whitcomb 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Green Grass Auto #9/99 PSA 9 Mint AstrosPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now