Marcus Smith
LF · Chattanooga Lookouts · Double-A · 25.0y · #6164 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
18 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Marcus Smith scores 18 out of 100 (#6164 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 20.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 20 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Contact: bottom of the scale
55.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
20.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Bat-first profile
LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Speed: plus-plus
60 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 93% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (9th percentile); elite speed (93th percentile).
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
20 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 27 on the 20–80 scale (55.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Corner-only profile
LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MS — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MS
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $4.94 costs 1.11× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
24 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 24 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 18 are under "The whole live market".
2021 Bowman Chrome Marcus Smith 1st Bowman On Card Auto Autograph Yellow #39/75
/75 · raw · condition not stated · listed 848d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$12.99
no sold price
LOTTERY
2021 Marcus Smith Sapphire Auto Aqua /99 Texas Rangers 1st Bowman Chrome
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 846d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2021 Bowman Chrome Marcus Smith #CPAMS Refractor 1st Prospect Auto /499 BGS 9.5
/499 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 970d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$29.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Marcus Smith Purple Refractor Auto /250 Texas
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 56d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.94
modeled ~$8.00
LOTTERY
2021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects CPA-MS Auto Purple Refractor #/250 Marcus Smith
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1355d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.54
modeled ~$8.00
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Chrome Purple Ref /250 Auto Marcus Smith 1st (RANGERS) !
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 59d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.99
modeled ~$4.01
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder8 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.44 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.70, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.70 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +96%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +3%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.49 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -17%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.99 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -20%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +134%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.94 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -65%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Yellow /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.99 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +163%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
27
bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level
55.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
20.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
65
plus-plus · better than 93% at his level
60 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level · the result, not a skill
.425 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
48
average · better than 42% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 50th percentile of the cohort, production at the 7th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 99% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 50 and his production sits at 7, a gap of +43. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 99th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
20
AVG
.125
OBP
.300
SLG
.125
OPS
.425
better than 7%
HR
0
SB
2
BB%
20.0
K%
55.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 18 not shown above
- Listings
- 24
- Lowest live
- $4.44
- Median ask
- $10.33
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.44
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $4.94
24 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 18 cards
- —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Marcus Smith Purple Refractor Auto /250 TexasNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $5.99Marcus Smith 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Speckle Refractor /299 RangersLOTTERY
- $7.492021 Bowman Chrome speckle auto Marcus Smith #'d 140/299 1st BowmanLOTTERY
- $10.992021 Bowman Chrome Marcus Smith 1st Bowman Speckle Refractor Auto /299 CPA-MSLOTTERY
- $8.992021 Bowman Chrome Marcus Smith 1st Bowman Auto #/499 Refractor Rangers.LOTTERY
- $30.982021 Bowman Chrome Speckle Refractor Auto Marcus Smith /299 SGC 10 POP 3NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $4.44Marcus Smith 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autographs #CPA-MS 1st Auto RangersLOTTERY
- $7.99MARCUS SMITH AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph Rookie Card RCLOTTERY
- $8.702021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1st RC BSPA-MSLOTTERY
- $9.952021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith 1st Bowman AUTO#BSPA-MS RangersLOTTERY
- $10.992021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1st BSPA-MSLOTTERY
- $11.252021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith 1st Bowman AUTO#BSPA-MS RangersLOTTERY
- —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Marcus Smith Auto TexasNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith AUTO Texas Rangers ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Marcus Smith 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Marcus Smith AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1st BSPA-MSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $21.912021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor /250 Marcus Smith #CPA-MS Auto x2oLOTTERY
- $10.702021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 181/499 Marcus Smith #CPA-MS Auto fv8LOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run