Aaron Walton
CF · Double-A · 22.0y · #389 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Priced fairly
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
67 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $19.24, inside the $19–19.99 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-AWA Aaron Walton 1st… at $19.24. Needs a $4 drop.
Our take
Solid prospect, priced about right.
Aaron Walton scores 67 out of 100 (#389 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
Plate discipline: plus
13.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 79% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Speed: above average
33 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 77% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
7 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Base$19.24delivered
2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-AWA Aaron Walton 1st Chrome Autograph Auto — $19.24 delivered, 1% under the $19–19.99 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.
See it on eBayWhat would make this a buy
- Needs a $4 drop
- Player not there yet
- 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-AWA Aaron Walton 1st… at or under $15.50 delivered.
What is for sale right now
17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome AARON WALTON Bowman 1st Silver Auto /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 52h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $21.85–22.99
PASS
Topps 2025 Bowman Draft Aaron Walton 1st Bowman RC Auto CPA-AWA Guardians
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $19–19.99
PASS · 17% under
2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-AWA Aaron Walton 1st Chrome Autograph Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Needs a $4 drop · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$19.24
sold $19–19.99
LOTTERY · 1% under
2025 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Aaron Walton TRUE GOLD Auto 12/50 #CPA-AWA Guards
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$499.99
modeled $45.60–47.98
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Aaron Walton Gold Wave Auto /50 #CPA-AWA
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 102d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $45.60–47.98
PASS
Topps 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Autographs Aaron Walton Auto RC CPA-AWA
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
sold $19–19.99
PASS · 10% under
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Aaron Walton, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $9.62–$20.20, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.24 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue Wave RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $92.64, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $92.64 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +382%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $36.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $36.00 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -61%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $155.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $155.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +333%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $181.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $181.98 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +17%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $499.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $499.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +175%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 56 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
52
average · better than 59% at his level
23.8% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
56
above average · better than 71% at his level
.178 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
58
plus · better than 79% at his level
13.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
57
above average · better than 77% at his level
33 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level · the result, not a skill
.789 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 72th percentile of the cohort, production at the 72th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 72 and his production sits at 72, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 48th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.1 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
126
AVG
.238
OBP
.373
SLG
.416
OPS
.789
better than 72%
HR
3
SB
7
BB%
13.5
K%
23.8
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .721 to .789 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.721▲.789
Power
.159▲.178
Walks
9.9%▲13.5%
Strikeouts
29.6%▼23.8%
Last season, 71 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
- Listings
- 17
- Lowest seen
- $19.24
- Median ask
- $73.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $19.24
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $36.00
17 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 11 cards
- $181.982025 Bowman Chrome Aaron Walton 1st Sparkle Refractor Auto 02/71 PASS
- $21.182025 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-AWA Aaron Walton Autographs Auto GuardiansLOTTERY
- $155.982025 Bowman Draft Aaron Walton 1st Chrome Blue Refractor Auto /150 GuardiansPASS
- $36.002025 Bowman Draft Chrome Aaron Walton Purple Refractor Auto /250 - 1st BowmanPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft - AARON WALTON (Bowman 1st) - Orange Wave Auto /25 - #CPA-AWAPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Aaron Walton Chrome Prospect Auto Blue Refractor #/150PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Aaron Walton 1st Auto Black X-Fractor PSA 9 Guardians BookendNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $73.502025 Bowman Chrome 1ST PROSPECT ROOKIE AUTO Aaron Walton, item 2PASS
- $73.502025 Bowman Chrome 1ST PROSPECT ROOKIE AUTO Aaron Walton, item 1PASS
- $92.642025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blue Wave Refractor Aaron Walton Auto 1er3PASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Aaron Walton Auto #CPA-AW Guardians ProspectPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run