Will Wilson
3B · Tacoma Rainiers · Triple-A · 28.0y · #4421 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Will Wilson scores 35 out of 100 (#4421 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus — 14.8% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 83% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 61 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.
Power: below average
.117 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus
14.8% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 83% at his level.
Premium position
3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Speed: above average
20 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 68% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
61 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.50 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
18 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".
2019 Bowman Chrome Will Wilson 1st Rookie Blue Wv Refractor Auto #d /150 BGS 9.5
/150 · BGS 9.5 · listed 346d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Will Wilson 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Pick 1st Rookie Auto Refractor /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 452d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.48
modeled ~$11.99
LOTTERY
2019 WILL WILSON GIANTS BOWMAN CHROME AUTO RC ROOKIE PSA 10
base · PSA 10 · listed 43d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$49.00
modeled ~$140.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 /250 Will Wilson #C19A-WW Auto PSA 10
base · PSA 10 · listed 32d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
modeled ~$140.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Will Wilson Blue Refractor Auto BGS 9.5 10 /150 ANGELS
/150 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 1869d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
WILL WILSON LOS ANGELES ANGELS 2019 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST /TTM AUTOGRAPH AUTO
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.99
modeled ~$4.99
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.50 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.04 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +234%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -40%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.91, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.91 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +144%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $62.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $62.17 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +184%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.19, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.19 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -68%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
49
average · better than 48% at his level
23.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level
.117 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level
14.8% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
55
above average · better than 68% at his level
20 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level · the result, not a skill
.841 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 58th percentile of the cohort, production at the 72th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 58 and his production sits at 72, a gap of -14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
61
AVG
.314
OBP
.410
SLG
.431
OPS
.841
better than 72%
HR
1
SB
2
BB%
14.8
K%
23.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
- Listings
- 18
- Lowest seen
- $4.50
- Median ask
- $21.91
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $15.48
18 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 12 cards
- $6.982019 Bowman Chrome Draft Will Wilson Rookie RC 1st Auto | Seattle MarinersLOTTERY
- $15.04Will Wilson Auto 2019 1st Bowman Draft #CDA-WW Chrome Draft Pick RefractorLOTTERY
- $20.192019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor 108/150 Will Wilson Auto 19otLOTTERY
- $21.912019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 184/250 Will Wilson #C19A-WW Auto 2a9LOTTERY
- $22.782019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 18/250 Will Wilson #C19A-WW Auto s3gLOTTERY
- $34.572019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 139/250 Will Wilson #C19A-WW Auto 5w7NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $62.172019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Will Wilson #CDA-WW Auto 3q5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $8.982019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 6/499 Will Wilson #CDA-WW Auto 02fgLOTTERY
- $40.322019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 33/499 Will Wilson #CDA-WW Auto 3q5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $40.322019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Refractor /499 Will Wilson #CDA-WW Auto ni4NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $22.772019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 /250 Will Wilson #C19A-WW Auto s7fLOTTERY
- $4.50WILL WILSON LOS ANGELES ANGELS 2019 BOWMAN 1ST /TTM AUTOGRAPH AUTOLOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run